Police and demonstrators continue to fight on the streets of Cairo in a fifth day of unprecedented protests by tens of thousands of Egyptians demanding an end to President Mubarak’s three decade rule. If this continues for too much longer we may well see a bloodless coup by the army. In fact I would argue that is a good thing for our interests and ultimately the Egyptians as well. We don’t need another Iran or Afghanistan in the Middle East. In both instances regime change resulted in overthrowing one tyranny for another tyranny.
The protests in Egypt create an environment for change to occur and the people with the most power tend to step in and act. That would be in Egypt the military who are the probable power brokers today. In fact, it’s probably the army keeping Mubarak away from the spotlight and in the background.
Before our present situation the military has been uncomfortable with the succession of power in Egypt anyway. The idea of his son taking power is distasteful to many insiders as well as the public. The military has not been confident the ruling party and the Mubaraks can keep the government on course. There are several candidates for the succession; intelligence chief Omar Suleiman, who is popular and not corrupt, Aviation Minister Ahmed Shafiq, a decorated war veteran, and Defense Minister Mohamed Tantawi, who is also commander of the armed forces. These men are the leading contenders to take over for President Mubarak and the best result for the nation and stability in the Middle East.
We need to hope that a bloodless coup can restore order to Egypt because some alternatives are inconceivable. One alternative seems to be the rise of the Muslim Brotherhood which is a Muslim extremist organization in the al Qaeda mold.
Contrary to the claims of the authorities in Egypt, we have yet to see any concrete evidence the Brotherhood is behind, the current unrest. That will change the longer this fighting drags out. They are beginning to jockey for position even now.
The ruling National Democratic Party is struggling with the military about how to proceed with the transition and we need a military led solution in Egypt. We are seeing pressure from the streets and the fear the military could actually align with the public. The concern is about replacing the ruling party and creating a new system.
A new system while bloodless at first could turn out to be not so bloodless. With a new system we most probably would not get a western styled democracy, in fact our choices practically are between traditional or Islamist dictatorships of some type. That’s why we need to have consensus among the potential assumptive leaders. We don’t need or want another potential Iran or Iraq in the Middle East. Currently the protesters do not seem to form a coherent political opposition and that’s a good thing. The voices of the people are being heard, but it’s in our interest for the right outcome and that outcome needs to happen sooner rather than later.
The protests in Egypt create an environment for change to occur and the people with the most power tend to step in and act. That would be in Egypt the military who are the probable power brokers today. In fact, it’s probably the army keeping Mubarak away from the spotlight and in the background.
Before our present situation the military has been uncomfortable with the succession of power in Egypt anyway. The idea of his son taking power is distasteful to many insiders as well as the public. The military has not been confident the ruling party and the Mubaraks can keep the government on course. There are several candidates for the succession; intelligence chief Omar Suleiman, who is popular and not corrupt, Aviation Minister Ahmed Shafiq, a decorated war veteran, and Defense Minister Mohamed Tantawi, who is also commander of the armed forces. These men are the leading contenders to take over for President Mubarak and the best result for the nation and stability in the Middle East.
We need to hope that a bloodless coup can restore order to Egypt because some alternatives are inconceivable. One alternative seems to be the rise of the Muslim Brotherhood which is a Muslim extremist organization in the al Qaeda mold.
Contrary to the claims of the authorities in Egypt, we have yet to see any concrete evidence the Brotherhood is behind, the current unrest. That will change the longer this fighting drags out. They are beginning to jockey for position even now.
The ruling National Democratic Party is struggling with the military about how to proceed with the transition and we need a military led solution in Egypt. We are seeing pressure from the streets and the fear the military could actually align with the public. The concern is about replacing the ruling party and creating a new system.
A new system while bloodless at first could turn out to be not so bloodless. With a new system we most probably would not get a western styled democracy, in fact our choices practically are between traditional or Islamist dictatorships of some type. That’s why we need to have consensus among the potential assumptive leaders. We don’t need or want another potential Iran or Iraq in the Middle East. Currently the protesters do not seem to form a coherent political opposition and that’s a good thing. The voices of the people are being heard, but it’s in our interest for the right outcome and that outcome needs to happen sooner rather than later.
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